You said you’d ease it, you said you wouldn’t. Illness, medicine, and… It’s different every time. It’s a word that comes to mind these days.
The 4.29 Loan Regulation Plan, called the Household Debt Management Plan, has been announced. However, homelessness cannot have housing-related household debt other than lease loans. Multi-homeowners cannot take out additional loans in regulated areas. As a result, it regulates loans that are essential for homeless people to buy and become single-home owners.
Recently, the Housing and Urban Guarantee Corporation (HUG) has set the general sale price of the maintenance project in high-sale management areas such as Incheon, Anyang, and Busan at 70% of the new market price nearby, delaying the general sale. In 2021, the official price of apartments will be greatly increased by actively reflecting the market price of the next complex.
Oh Yoon-seop’s rich note this week summarized why the increasingly tight lending regulations cannot stabilize house prices in the uptrend to block the purchase of additional homes by multiple homeowners.
Home prices have stabilized, housing demand through the Moon Jae-in, the government loan regulations can be confident. Rather than being confident in stabilizing housing prices in the remaining term with about a year left, Sol seems to be insisting on continuing to regulate loans for the rest of the year, as he has tightened lending regulations so far.
The biggest reason why housing prices cannot be controlled by loan regulations in the upward market is that even if housing demand is temporarily reduced, sales do not pile up. In order for the upward market to turn to a downward market, sales must first pile up. Unsold goods should also surge and accumulate malicious inventory. By the way, only homeless people with a sale price of 900 million won or less can get a mid-payment loan, so will construction companies randomly increase the supply of new apartments?
Moon Jae-in government took office four years, all regulations, the decrease in the distribution of books. It’s just a regulation that can’t be sold. If you look at the Gangnam apartment market, which is always over-demand, the distribution volume reduction is typical, including a ban on resale rights, a ban on transferring status, heavy transfer taxes, and a land transaction permit system. In addition, the 2nd Lease Act, such as the previous month’s ceiling system, the contract renewal zone, the two-year real residence requirement for non-taxable transfer tax, and the two-year real residence requirement for reconstruction members are also measures to reduce sales.
Every time the regulations are implemented, the distribution volume decreases, so the sales rarely pile up. So the seller advantage market is prolonged. As in January-March, the buyer-dominant market has been in a vicious cycle that has been intermittently short since regulations. If distribution sales decrease and lease prices rise, multiple homeowners will survive regardless of loan regulations.
If loan regulations such as LTV, DTI, and DSR are enforced, housing demand will decrease in the short term, which seems to have the effect of stabilizing housing prices. However, there has been no continuous decline in house prices and downward stabilization for more than a year.
Even after the most shocking loan regulation measure of 12.16 in 2019 (no homeowners are allowed to borrow more than 1.5 billion won in overheated speculation zones such as Seoul), it surged again after six months of adjustment.
The trading volume may temporarily decrease due to loan regulations, which may lead to a correction, but no decline. The decisive reason why the decline does not come is that in the upward market, where expectations for a rise in housing prices are maintained, there is a lock-in effect that multiple homeowners want to keep their houses instead of selling them to avoid a transfer tax bomb. In addition, the freezing effect increases as the switching cost of transferring to heavy transfer tax and acquisition tax increases.
Even if multiple homeowners, including two houses, want to transfer to higher-level areas in the regulated area, transfer tax bombs and acquisition tax bombs are blocking. In addition, multi-homeowners cannot receive new mortgages in regulated areas where they repay and transfer pre-regulated mortgages. There will be no multi-homeowners who reduce liquidity on their own unless a bear market comes.
The most serious problem with loan regulations is that the person hardest hit by loan regulations is not multiple homeowners, but homeless people, but homeless people. In particular, people in their 20s and 30s with low income and those in their 50s with low income will be directly hit by homeless people.
Even if a homeless person receives a mortgage to the maximum limit, he or she cannot purchase an apartment as the level of loan regulation increases without assets held, such as stock deposits. In the worst case scenario, even if you are in the fourth and fifth quartiles of income, if you are in the first and second quartiles of assets, you will not be able to purchase apartments in the desired area
There’s a logic that a lot of real estate tumblingists. They argue that liquidity is reduced due to loan regulations, reducing demand, and rising interest rates will cause house prices to plummet. It’s just a guess of a typical real estate mooray. First of all, a rise in interest rates accompanied by an economic recovery is not a factor in falling housing prices.
The reason why the liquidity of homeowners is increasing even in loan regulations in the upward market is because of the rise in housing prices. Even if LTV is lowered by up to 70 percent to 40 percent, the size of the mortgage can increase.
Multiple homeowners who purchased reconstruction complexes before 2017 can still receive up to 60% of LTV loans when they move in. Multi-homeowners with a new reconstruction project worth 2 billion won in market value can secure liquidity (cash) of more than 1 billion won even if they pay back the relocation cost. Would it be easy for you to give up your balance loan? Like Banpo Jugong Complex 1 and Bangbae District 13, Gangnam reconstruction relocation fee payment is also a representative case of expansion of liquidity.
폰테크 Also, if we have 84 types of apartments in Seoul, and tenants went out during the expiration of the lease, and the lease price increased by 300 million won from two years ago, how would the owner of the house use 300 million won?
It is known that DTI and DSR regulations are more than twice as shocking to the middle and low-income class, or the lower class of assets, with fewer net assets than the LTV regulations. This is because the borrowing constraint effect (reduction effect) is large.
The effect of loan regulations on housing demand is greater for homeless people, not multiple homeowners. Excessive lending regulations harm the housing stability of real-estate users, such as homeless people and single-home owners. U.S., European and other advanced countries like 80 percent of the ltv consumers projected to be easing in and out of the path of stable housing are tall, but Moon Jae-in, the government in the opposite effect of (53 % 47 percent, Seoul, Korea is average at the end of 2017 ltv) going.